On November 4, the offshore RMB appreciated by more than 500 points against the US dollar, breaking through the 7.10 mark. As of 19:50, the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar were reported at 7.0929 and 7.0916, respectively, up 442 points and 384 points, or 0.62% and 0.54% respectively.
It is worth noting that the US dollar index, which rose sharply last Friday, suddenly fell sharply on the 4th. At 19:50 on November 4, the US dollar index fell 0.64%, falling below 104 to 103.54. Last Friday, when the non-agricultural data was significantly lower than expected, the US dollar index rose significantly, closing up 0.34% on the day.
Industry insiders believe that the weakening of the US dollar may be closely related to the US election. The results of the US election are about to be released. As the election enters a critical stage, the main line of market trading also switches with the changes in the election situation.
Zhou Maohua, a researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that on November 4, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rebounded strongly, mainly driven by internal and external factors. On the one hand, due to the introduction of a package of countercyclical policies, market expectations have improved significantly, and the market is optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery and market valuation repair, driving the inflow of external funds; on the other hand, due to the recent fluctuations in the “Trump deal”, the market’s pessimistic expectations for non-US currencies such as the euro have eased, causing the US dollar to rise and fall.
Looking ahead to the future market, industry insiders believe that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will rise steadily and may return to within 7 before the end of the year.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that China’s export situation is stable and improving, and it continues to play a basic role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows; with the introduction of a package of unexpected policies such as currency, real estate, and capital markets, market confidence has been significantly boosted, and international investors have accelerated the layout of Chinese assets, which has also formed a strong support for the stability of foreign exchange reserves. The foreign exchange market will continue to operate smoothly. “It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will most likely remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level.” He believes that the domestic economy’s trend of stabilization and improvement will further strengthen, and the balance of international payments will remain basically stable. As foreign trade companies’ willingness to settle foreign exchange continues to increase, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may stabilize and return to below 7 before the end of the year.
来源：广州新闻网